Delhi’s Right Turn: What It Means for South Asia

Delhi, long seen as India’s administrative hub, is now poised to become the ideological nucleus of Hindu nationalism. With a Chief Minister backed by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) at its helm, the city isn’t just electing a leader—it is cementing a worldview. This transformation isn’t happening in isolation. Across the globe, from Trump’s America to Europe’s right-wing resurgence, nationalism is no longer a fringe movement—it is the new mainstream. And in South Asia, where borders are fluid but histories are rigid, Delhi’s shift could send ripples across the region.

The appointment of an RSS-affiliated Chief Minister following BJP’s victory marks a defining moment in India’s political trajectory. This is more than a change in local governance; it signals the consolidation of Hindu nationalist ideology at the heart of Indian policymaking. As the country’s political and bureaucratic nerve center, Delhi influences national governance, diplomatic engagements, and security policies. A more overtly nationalist administration could have profound implications, particularly for neighboring countries—Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka—all navigating their own crises amid a shifting global order.

As the world moves away from Western-led multilateralism, Delhi’s policies will be shaped by new regional realities—especially in its engagement with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh.

Pakistan: The End of the “Terrorism” Mantra?

For decades, India’s Pakistan policy revolved around branding it a terror sponsor—a narrative that resonated in Washington and Brussels. But with the West moving on from the War on Terror, shifting its focus to great-power competition and economic realignments, Delhi can no longer rely on this rhetoric to isolate Islamabad.

Instead, India may pivot to a different strategy: leveraging regional dynamics to box Pakistan in diplomatically. A nationalist Delhi will seek to exploit Islamabad’s frictions with its neighbors—particularly Afghanistan and Bangladesh—to create pressure points. The game is no longer about global narratives; it’s about shaping the regional order to India’s advantage.

Afghanistan: Will Pakistan’s Leverage Hold?

Pakistan has historically played a key role in Afghanistan, but the evolving situation presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, the Taliban’s internal rifts—between the Kandahari leadership and the Haqqani network—have created a complex power dynamic. On the other, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)’s resurgence has forced Islamabad to recalibrate its Afghan strategy—balancing security concerns while maintaining its influence over Kabul. Unlike in the past, Pakistan is now actively engaging regional players, including China and Russia, not only to strengthen its position but also to limit external maneuvering, particularly by India.

Meanwhile, these shifts present new openings for India. While Delhi’s traditional approach—focused on aid and infrastructure—will likely continue, a more assertive, nationalist leadership might engage factions within the Taliban that are looking for alternatives to Pakistan. Furthermore, India’s growing ties with Iran and Russia could provide new leverage, particularly in countering the expanding China-Pakistan nexus in Afghanistan. However, India’s options remain constrained as Beijing and Islamabad solidify their strategic footprint in Kabul.

Given these dynamics, any Indian outreach in Afghanistan will likely be cautious. Despite emerging rifts, Pakistan’s influence remains significant, and a direct confrontation could escalate tensions. Instead, Delhi may adopt a wait-and-watch strategy, carefully identifying moments where it can subtly expand its presence without provoking an immediate backlash. Should Taliban-Pakistan relations sour further, India will waste no time capitalizing on the rift.

At the same time, China’s expanding role in Afghanistan could cement a stronger China-Pakistan-Afghanistan axis—one that actively counters Indian influence. With Beijing investing in Afghan minerals, infrastructure, and trade, Pakistan, in turn, benefits from an enhanced security and economic umbrella, limiting India’s outreach in Kabul. In this scenario, if China deepens its engagement with the Taliban, a nationalist India may find its options narrowing, facing a regional order increasingly shaped by Chinese and Pakistani interests.

However, India’s nationalist leadership is also likely to see an opportunity in the broader United States strategy of containing China. Since Washington’s Indo-Pacific vision aligns with Delhi’s aspirations, Afghanistan could become another arena where India positions itself as a counterweight to Beijing. To this end, expect India to leverage its growing defense ties with the U.S. to push back against China’s expanding influence in South Asia, positioning itself as Washington’s key regional partner.

That said, this strategy comes with risks. If Delhi overplays its hand, it could provoke direct pushback from both China and Pakistan, increasing regional instability. As a result, a nationalist India will have to navigate this carefully—balancing its anti-China stance with maintaining enough regional stability to prevent a full-fledged diplomatic crisis.

Also See: Hindutva: A Civilisational Gerrymandering of India

Bangladesh: Can Pakistan Disrupt India’s Eastern Front?

Sheikh Hasina’s Bangladesh has long been India’s reliable partner, but Dhaka’s subtle tilt toward Pakistan is raising eyebrows in Delhi. Recent diplomatic warmth—trade talks, defense cooperation signals, and a softening of past rhetoric—suggests Bangladesh is hedging its bets. If a post-Hasina government accelerates this shift, India’s eastern flank could become a new strategic headache.

A nationalist Delhi will not take this lightly. Expect an intensified charm offensive—economic incentives, infrastructure deals, and military partnerships—to keep Dhaka in its orbit. But if Pakistan gains ground, Delhi could pivot to pressure tactics: invoking migration concerns, tightening trade policies, or even discreet political maneuvering to ensure Bangladesh doesn’t slip too far.

In an era where global alignments are fluid, Bangladesh’s balancing act will test India’s ability to retain influence in its own backyard.

The New Regional Playbook

Delhi’s new nationalist trajectory, shaped by RSS ideology, is not just an internal political development; it is a marker of South Asia’s larger transition into an era of hardened nationalism, strategic recalibration, and reduced global intervention. As India’s capital becomes a stronger symbol of ideological governance, the region must brace for the consequences—both in terms of shifting alliances and potential confrontations.

With terrorism fading as a global concern, Delhi’s playbook in South Asia is evolving. The future will be defined less by diplomatic grandstanding and more by realpolitik: exploiting fault lines, reshaping alliances, and ensuring that Pakistan remains strategically constrained. As the international order transitions, expect India’s nationalist leadership to craft a South Asia strategy that is sharper, more pragmatic, and less reliant on old narratives.

For nations like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, the challenge will be to navigate this evolving landscape without being drawn into conflicts or diplomatic entanglements that could destabilize an already volatile region. The world is moving towards a new order; one where nationalistic impulses will define policies more than multilateral commitments. Delhi’s transformation is merely one chapter in this unfolding narrative.